How We Calculate Hit Rates
Last updated August 24, 2026
Every number on this site comes from the same two-step idea: take the line a sportsbook is offering today, then check how often the player has actually finished above that exact number in their recent games. No projection, no model, no opinion. If a card tells you a player has hit 7 of their last 10, there are ten completed box scores behind it and seven of them cleared the line.
That simplicity is deliberate, but it has consequences worth understanding before you lean on any of it. This page explains exactly what the numbers count, and — just as importantly — what they cannot tell you.
Where the data comes from
Prop lines and game odds come from The Odds API, which aggregates the major US sportsbooks. Player game logs, box scores, schedules and news come from ESPN’s public data. Game-time weather comes from OpenWeather.
We combine and present that information. We don’t generate it, and we can’t vouch for its accuracy — if a box score misattributes a rebound, our hit rate inherits that error. If you spot a number that looks wrong, tell us and we’ll trace it back to the source feed.
What a hit rate actually counts
For a given player and market, we pull their completed games inside your selected window, compare the real statistical result against the line currently posted, and score each game as a cash or a miss. The hit rate is cashes divided by games counted.
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The line is today’s line, applied backwards. We’re asking “how often would this number have cleared”, not “how often did that day’s number clear”. This is the single most important thing to understand: it measures the current line against history, not a record of past bets.
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Games the player didn’t appear in aren’t counted. A missed game is not a miss — it’s excluded, so the denominator shrinks rather than the rate falling.
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Landing exactly on the number counts as a miss. Most props are posted on a half-point precisely so ties can’t happen; where a whole number does appear, we score conservatively rather than quietly discarding the game.
The window, and why it changes the answer
The Window control switches between the last 5, 10 and 14 games. These are genuinely different questions, and it’s normal for them to disagree.
A five-game window reacts fast. It picks up a changed role, a new rotation, a return from injury — but five games is a small sample, and one outlier moves it twenty points. A fourteen-game window is steadier and far less noisy, but it’s still averaging in a version of the player who may not exist any more.
When the two disagree sharply, that disagreement is the signal. It usually means something changed recently, and the player’s card is worth opening to find where.
Streaks
The streak counts consecutive games cleared, or consecutive games missed, working backwards from the most recent game. It uses the same window and the same line as the hit rate.
A long streak sitting next to a mediocre hit rate is the pattern worth noticing. It generally means recent form isn’t representative of the fuller window — and that the change has a start date you can actually find.
Why books post different numbers
Sportsbooks price independently. The same player can be 26.5 at one book and 27.5 at another, and those are materially different propositions — a full point on a scoring prop can move the true hit rate by ten points or more.
Every card lists each book we have a line from, so you can see the spread rather than whichever number you happened to see first. The Books tab ranks which sportsbooks are currently posting the best numbers across today’s slate.
How often this refreshes
Props refresh on a schedule through the day — overnight, then again in the morning, around midday and in the late afternoon — rather than continuously. Live scores and in-game progress update far more frequently.
So a line here can lag the one your sportsbook is showing right now. Always confirm at the book before acting on a number. If the two disagree, the book is right and we’re stale.
What these numbers cannot tell you
A hit rate describes the past. It isn’t a probability, a projection, or advice. It doesn’t know that a player is on a minutes restriction tonight, that the opposing team’s best defender is back, or that a starter was ruled out an hour ago.
Sportsbooks price with far more information than a rolling average contains. When a line looks obviously mispriced against its own history, the likelier explanation is that the book knows something the box scores don’t yet reflect. Treat a striking hit rate as a reason to go looking, not as a conclusion.
We are not a sportsbook. We take no wagers, hold no money, and nothing here is a recommendation to place one. If gambling stops being fun, help is free and confidential: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) in the US.